The 2021 Texas Rangers Could Lose 100 Games
The Texas Rangers are about two weeks from Opening Day and the beginning of the 2021 season. Last week, the Rangers inexplicably announced that they will be permitting the full capacity of over 40,000 fans to attend the last few Spring Training games and Opening Day at Globe Life Field. They are the only Major League team that is opening at over 50%. This is, of course, an incredibly irresponsible decision; the pandemic continues to ravage the state and these games will be super-spreader events. They’ve said that after Opening Day, they will have “socially distanced sections” available[i] (not sure what this means) and it isn’t clear if they’ll continue to operate at full capacity. No matter. As many have pointed out, it won’t take long for Globe Life Field to become a ghost town, anyway. The product the Rangers put out on the field will act as the most effective social distancing measure.
We know that the Rangers are rebuilding. After faking it for the last 4 years and attempting to straddle the line between contending and re-tooling, the Rangers have finally given up the ghost and embraced being terrible. They traded face-of-the-franchise shortstop Elvis Andrus (who has been awful the last three years anyway) to Oakland to signify that this is a new era. They didn’t make any meaningful additions in the offseason and dealt away ace pitcher Lance Lynn to the White Sox. A team that finished last in the American League in 2020 is going to be even worse. The rebuild is here, and it’s going to be UGLY in 2021. The offense will stink out loud. The pitching might be worse. Let’s break it all down and get ready for a very trying year of baseball.
THE LINEUP
If I had to guess, the Rangers regular lineup will look something like this:
1. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa- SS
2. David Dahl- LF
3. Joey Gallo- RF
4. Nick Solak- 2B
5. Willie Calhoun- DH (when healthy)
6. Nate Lowe- 1B
7. Rougned Odor- 3B (eventually Josh Jung)
8. Jose Trevino- C
9. Leody Taveras- CF
Bench: Khris Davis-DH, Eli White-OF, Charlie Culberson-SS/UTIL, Jonah Heim-C
This is a lineup that is going to struggle to score runs. Across the board, there are very few guys with track records of success at the plate. Joey Gallo will, hopefully, return to his All Star-caliber form after a down 2020. The Rangers’ biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason, David Dahl, is coming off an abysmal, injury-riddled season, but has been a very solid hitter for his entire career. Both of them should produce. Outside of those two guys, this lineup is filled with question marks and horror shows. Hell, even Gallo and Dahl had terrible 2020’s, and if that repeats itself, this will be the worst offense in the American League.
My favorite stat to analyze offense with is Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), a stat that measures total, park-adjusted production. A score of 100 represents a league-average offensive player. That’s really good! Hitting is very difficult and being average at it over an extended period of time usually means that you are a serviceable Major League player. When looking at wRC+, every number above or below 100 indicates a percentage above or below league average. For example, a player with a 150 wRC+ is 50% more productive than a league-average hitter. A player with a 69 wRC+ is 31% less productive than a league- average hitter. Excluding Gallo and Dahl, the rest of this projected lineup has a combined two hitters with career wRC+’s above 100. One of those guys is Nick Solak (101), a player with just 368 career plate appearances. Solak was acquired in a trade with the Rays in 2019 and put up some very good numbers in 135 plate appearances with Texas that year. Many Ranger fans (including myself) thought Solak would have a breakout 2020, but he was incredibly disappointing: he hit for just an 83 wRC+ with only 2 home runs in 58 games. The Rangers need Solak to hit, because he sucks at defense and doesn’t really have a position. The contact skills and plate discipline are there, but if he doesn’t become a power threat, he won’t be the hitter this lineup requires. The other guy with an above 100 wRC+ is Nate Lowe (102), the Rangers new 1st baseman. Lowe was acquired in yet another trade with Tampa Bay and has just 245 big-league plate appearances. Lowe has pop but strikes out a ton. He had a K% of 36.8 last year and struck out 29.6% of the time in 2019. The Rangers hope he can cut down his chase rate, improve his plate discipline, and hit for power in the middle of the lineup. He’s someone I’m really looking forward to watching this year, as he can change the whole complexion of the offense if he breaks out. While both Solak and Lowe have upside, neither has really shown us what they’re capable of, so they can’t really be counted on for consistent production in 2021.
The biggest question mark in the Rangers’ lineup is going to be Willie Calhoun. For me, this is a do-or-die year for him. It looks like Willie will begin the season on the IL with a groin strain, which is not good news for him or the Rangers. The once top prospect and compensation in the Yu Darvish trade has been killed by injuries, lack of playing time, fitness, and attitude issues throughout his time in Texas. There have been stretches where it looked like Calhoun was a world-beater, a stud hitter ready to hold down a spot in the middle of the Rangers’ order for years to come. Conversely, there have been many times where he looks overmatched, frustrated, and confused at the plate. Injuries have been brutal for Willie. In 2019, he was on a tear before a quad injury at the end of May landed him on the IL for a month. He was never the same once he returned. Last season, Calhoun dropped a bunch of weight, was in the best shape of his life, and was impressing in camp before he took a 95 MPH fastball to the face, shattering his jaw. Couple that with COVID and Calhoun was never comfortable at the plate in 2020: his numbers were atrocious, and I won’t even print them here. Regardless of all the unfortunate circumstances that Willie has endured, many of which were outside his control, he needs to prove that he can produce. He needs to show the Rangers that he belongs in the franchise’s long-term plans. If he has a down 2021, he could find himself fighting to stay in the big leagues in the not-so-distant future.
Outside of the guys I’ve talked about, the rest of the lineup is going to be bad. Rougned Odor is a bad baseball player. I won’t get fooled again. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa seemed to legitimately improve as a hitter last year; the defensive wizard turned his bat into a close-to-league-average offensive weapon. But even in a career year, he still only hit for a 93 wRC+. Jose Trevino is a fine defensive catcher, but he is never going to hit. Leody Taveras didn’t embarrass himself last season, especially for a guy that came in to 2020 with just 293 career plate appearances above AA, but he’s probably a year or two away from being an average hitter and could spend some of 2021 in AAA. No matter who grabs the bench spots out of spring training (Brock Holt, Eli White, Ronald Guzman, Delino DeShields, Jonah Heim, Charlie Culberson, Khris Davis, and Andy Ibanez are the dudes competing for them), none of them can really hit. Khris Davis, the longtime Ranger Killer and return in the Andrus trade, looks very washed but his contract and Calhoun’s injury may force him onto the Opening Day roster. If he doesn’t make it, I would expect Ronald Guzman to get that spot; I don’t believe in Guzman as a hitter, either.
The Rangers need Gallo to be elite and Dahl, Lowe, Calhoun, Solak, and IKF to be average to solidly above average if they want their offense to be anything other than horrendous. If any combination of these guys underperforms (which is almost certain to happen, it’s baseball) the domino effect won’t be possible to overcome. I’m just looking forward to later in the season, when the Rangers will call up their top prospects and give them a chance to play. I won’t care about any of this once I get to see Josh Jung hit and play third base. Sam Huff should get a try at catcher, Anderson Tejeda will get to play the middle-infield spots, and Sherten Apostle will get some reps on the corners. The Rangers don’t have a very good farm system, and they could very well trade Joey Gallo (and others) if he performs well. If and when that occurs, it will be interesting to watch the Rangers attempt to build that farm system back up while developing the guys they already have.
THE STARTING PITCHING
While the offense will more than likely be bad, you could talk yourself into a situation where it might not be. The same cannot be said for the starting pitching. It’s going to stink. After dealing Mike Minor at the trade deadline last year, trading Lance Lynn in the offseason, and letting Rangers-legend Corey Kluber walk, the vaunted starting rotation that everyone was excited about in early 2020 is gone. Chris Woodward has already come out and stated that this year’s starting rotation will be “non-traditional.”[ii] This means that we will see a very loose rotation that will feature openers, piggybackers, and 60–70 pitch limits for certain dudes in an effort to protect them from facing a batting order 3 times. The Rangers will not have a normal, 5-man rotation. Keeping this in mind, here’s what we can expect the starting pitching depth chart to look like:
1. *Kyle Gibson- RHP
2. *Kohei Arihara- RHP
3. *Mike Foltynewicz- RHP
4. Jordan Lyles- RHP
5. Dane Dunning- RHP
Other Starters/Long Relievers: Kolby Allard, Kyle Cody, Wes Benjamin, Taylor Hearn, Joe Palumbo, Brock Burke(?)
(*= Guys that will be used in a more traditional starting role. The rest of these guys will be 60–70 pitch guys or have an opener/piggybacker attached to them. Those who don’t “start” will be used as long relievers out of the bullpen.)
YIKES. That’s right, Kyle Gibson, the man with a career 4.57 ERA (5.35 last year), is the ace of the staff. Asking Kyle Gibson to be your best starting pitcher is like asking your dog to drive you to work: if they try to do it, you’re going to be in a bad situation. Gibson doesn’t miss bats, has unremarkable velocity, and is a guy that is on your staff to eat innings rather than shut opposing teams down. The sad thing is, as unspectacular as Gibson is, he really might be the best starter the Rangers have.
Kohei Arihara, a 28-year-old righty from Japan, was signed in the offseason and is at least intriguing. He pitched well in 6 NPB seasons for the Hokkaido-Nippon Ham Fighters, with a career 3.74 ERA. Arihara doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts and his average fastball velocity sits at between 90–93 MPH. He throws a lot of different pitches. No one can be sure how he will adjust to the Major Leagues, but I would bet that, at the very least, he’ll be able to eat innings and avoid being Jordan Lyles-level awful. There’s not too much else to say about Arihara because we really don’t have any idea what he’ll look like at this level. Regardless, I’m more excited to watch him pitch than the likes of Gibson and Lyles.
Mike Foltynewicz represents the latest Rangers Reclamation Project. Every year, JD and company go dumpster diving in the bargain bin, hoping that one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. This has worked out a few times (Mike Minor and Lance Lynn were steals), so the hope is that Folty falls into that category rather than the Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Cory Kluber, etc. examples. Foltynewicz came up in 2014 and was a below-average starter until 2018 with the Braves when he had a spectacular season, posting a 2.85 ERA. He came crashing back down to Earth in an injury-riddled 2019, and only pitched 3.1 innings in 2020. Injuries have hampered Folty, but he’s looked good so far in spring training. His velocity has been up, hitting 95–97 mph a few times.[iii] If he can be the pitcher that he was in 2018, JD will have pulled off another Mike Minor/Lance Lynn-level heist. Since Folty only signed a one-year deal, a strong performance from him would most likely result in a trade to a contender. The big question is if that 2018 version of this guy represented who he really is when healthy, or if that one season was a fluky outlier. The Rangers are really hoping for the former, as being able to trade Foltynewicz for prospects at the deadline would be huge for the re-tooling of the farm system. For this reason, Foltynewicz is someone to keep a very close eye on in 2021.
Jordan Lyles is terrible. He’s somehow been in the big leagues for 10 years, despite being below average nearly every step of the way. After a very solid second half of 2019 with the Brewers, Lyles tricked the Rangers into giving him a two-year, $16 million deal. Last year, the Jordan Lyles experience was a nightmare. He had an ERA of 7.02. While ERA is not a perfect stat, it reflects how bad he looked. He had a career high FIP (a stat that adjusts ERA for defense) of 5.95, a hilariously awful number that would have been worst in the Majors if he had enough innings to qualify. The good news is that the Rangers have already come out and said that Lyles will be used as one of the 60-to-70 pitch guys in order to limit the damage facing him. My guess would be that, regardless, his outings will consist of the Rangers giving up a ton of runs. I hope he is designated for assignment sooner rather than later.
Dane Dunning, the Rangers’ return in the Lance Lynn trade, would be my bet to win the last unofficial starting rotation spot. Of all the guys that will pitch for Texas this year, Dunning is the guy that I’m most interested in. That’s not saying a ton, because I don’t think that Dunning is a very exciting prospect. Dunning is the Rangers #3 prospect and a borderline top 100 guy, depending on who you ask. He projects as a middle-to-end of the rotation starter: not spectacular, but dependable. Dunning debuted for the White Sox last year and was pretty solid, throwing 34 innings to the tune of a 3.97 ERA. Dunning is a pretty decent strikeout pitcher, posting an above average K/9 throughout the minor leagues. He has a good assortment of pitches that he can throw for strikes. None of his pitches are anything that are particularly special, but he can get the job done. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Dunning is the best starting pitcher for the Rangers this year. While he doesn’t have a ton of upside, it would be big for the organization if he can eat innings and perform at a respectable level. You need cheap, young, controllable guys like Dunning when you’re a team in the middle of a rebuild.
The rest of the pitchers that will likely start games for Texas features a cast of younger guys fighting to establish themselves in the big leagues. Taylor Hearn and Joe Palumbo are both 26, and neither has shown that they belong in the Majors. Hearn has looked good in spring training, and I hope the local kid finally breaks through this year. Palumbo is a guy that I think probably ends up being a reliever. Kolby Allard is 23 and needs to prove that he can be a back-of-the rotation piece. Kyle Cody was awesome last year for Texas and I would love to see him earn a rotation spot, even if I don’t think his ceiling is very high. Wes Benjamin has looked decent in camp and offers some versatility, but he’s probably just a guy. Brock Burke is coming off shoulder surgery and it remains to be seen when he’ll play and how he’ll factor into the Rangers’ plans. Of all the guys I’ve mentioned here, I think he has the most upside and has the best chance to be a quality rotation piece if healthy. All in all, the Rangers’ starting pitching is going to give up a lot of runs. There will be lots of long innings for opposing offenses and lots of calls to the bullpen. However, there are some interesting storylines to follow and dudes to root for. Developing pitching has long been the organization’s biggest failure, and a little bit of success in that realm in 2021 would be nice to see.
THE BULLPEN
The performance of bullpens from year to year is likely the most difficult thing to predict in baseball. Relievers are volatile, and it’s very hard to anticipate what kind of season any relief pitcher is going to have. That being said, the Rangers appeared to be heading into 2021 with a decent bullpen until stud set-up man Jonathan Hernandez sprained his UCL. Hernandez will be out for at least a couple of months, and his absence really hurts the Texas pen. Without Hernandez, the pen probably will consist of these dudes:
THE LONG RELIEVERS/NON-TRADITIONAL STARTERS: Kolby Allard, Kyle Cody, Wes Benjamin, Taylor Hearn, Joe Palumbo, Brock Burke.
When these guys don’t “start,” they will either work as long relievers, openers, piggybackers, spot starters, or even one-to-two inning guys. Their roles are going to be flexible, constantly changing according to game situation, health of the team, and performance. Palumbo and Burke aren’t healthy and won’t make the Opening Day roster, but I expect them to both to be called up at some point. All of these guys are relatively young and hungry to prove that they belong in the big leagues. They have a great opportunity this season, with all the weirdness that will surround Rangers’ pitching, to carve out a role and show the team that they deserve to be a part of the future. It will be interesting to see how these guys handle the chaos surrounding them and if they can fight through it and get outs.
THE TRADITONAL 1–2 INNING RELIEVERS: Jose Leclerc, Brett Martin, Ian Kennedy, Matt Bush, *Joely Rodriguez, *Demarcus Evans, *Jonathan Hernandez (if he returns this year)
(*= won’t be on the Opening Day Roster)
Leclerc will serve as the closer to open the year and this is a huge season for him. After a phenomenal 2018, Leclerc has been a bad reliever. He hasn’t been able to command his pitches, he’s walked way too many hitters (5.11 K/9 in 2019), and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Leclerc has awesome stuff, a power fastball and a wicked off-speed pitch that he calls the “slambio.” When he’s on, Leclerc is a dominant strikeout pitcher who is exciting to watch. Leclerc, signed through 2022, is another guy that could be traded for prospects if he performs at a high level. Again, the Rangers’ farm needs all the help it can get. Leclerc needs to return to his dominant form if the Rangers want to cash in. Brett Martin isn’t healthy right now, and I’m not sure if he’ll be ready for Opening Day, but he’ll be firmly in the mix when he is available. He isn’t very good. I wouldn’t anticipate him being anything other than replacement-level in 2021. Ian Kennedy, a minor-league free agent signing, will probably make the roster. He was awful last year (8.83 ERA) and is washed as hell. He’s probably going to stink. Matt Bush is a very interesting story, as he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues in nearly 3 years. Bush has looked solid in spring training, so I would bet on the Rangers giving him a chance to return to the bullpen. His stuff was awesome when he was with the Rangers in 2016–2017, but that was a long time ago. Regardless, he’s a very intriguing guy to keep an eye on.
Joely Rodriguez isn’t healthy, but he will be a key bullpen member when he is able to pitch. I have no idea what to expect with him. He threw 12 good innings in 2020 but has never had any sustained big-league success. He probably isn’t very good! Demarcus Evans will likely get called up at some point this year, and he’s really the only reliever that I’m excited about. He is a MASSIVE human being at 6’5”, 265 pounds and throws the baseball extremely hard. It will be fun to see him fight for a high-leverage role in the bullpen. If I had to guess, I would say that the Rangers’ bullpen is going to stink. But who knows?? Like I said before, it’s very hard to project the performance of relievers. One thing I can say with some certainty: the Rangers are going to use a lot of different pitchers this year. You will see many trips to the mound. The non-traditional managing of the starting rotation will necessitate this, and the bullpen will be an ever-evolving beast as a result.
THE DEFENSE
If the 2021 Texas Rangers are capable of having a strength, it will be their defense. The 2020 Rangers, who finished last in the American League, had two(!!) Gold Glove winners in Joey Gallo and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. While Gold Gloves are not the most important defensive indicator, they don’t mean nothing. Gallo has turned himself into one of the best defensive right fielders in all of baseball. His arm, speed, and instincts are all huge pluses. Kiner-Falefa won his Gold Glove playing third base, but he is a shortstop by trade; the Rangers expect him to play the position at a high level and there is no reason to think he won’t. Rougned Odor will likely start the season as the regular third baseman, and he’s looked really good there in spring training. When Josh Jung comes up and takes over, he should be a very good defensive third baseman, as well; it was a strength of his in college and he even played a fair amount of shortstop. Nate Lowe isn’t a very good defender at first, but first base defense is largely meaningless. The weak link in the infield, and maybe the Rangers only true minus defender, is Nick Solak at second base. Solak has been tried in the infield and outfield, and he isn’t a good defender at any position. Second base is probably the closest thing to his “natural” position, but he still sucks at it. He needs to hit in order to justify running him out there every day, and if he doesn’t, you could see someone like Charlie Culberson, Brock Holt, or even Anderson Tejeda take his spot. Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim are both very solid defensive catchers and should provide a calming presence behind the plate.
In the outfield, I’ve already talked about how Joey Gallo is one of the best right fielders in baseball. I expect him to be elite. In left, David Dahl will be just fine. Dahl has played a lot of center field in his career, and although he has never been a plus defender there, he should be very good in left, the easiest outfield position. Leody Taveras’s defense in center is his biggest strength as a prospect and is the main reason why he’ll more than likely be on the Opening Day roster. If he’s not a plus there, he’ll be back in the minor leagues.
Overall, defense is a tough thing to analyze. Statistics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating are helpful tools, but even they don’t paint the whole picture. This makes it tough to predict what kind of defense any team will have, but we do know that the Rangers lineup features a lot of guys that project as plus defenders. With a pitching staff that doesn’t miss many bats, the defense will need to execute behind them and steal outs where they can. I’m cautiously optimistic that they’ll be able to do this. The Rangers are going to be hard to watch for a lot of different reasons in 2021, but if their defense is one of those reasons, I’ll be genuinely surprised.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Are the 2021 Texas Rangers going to be any good? No. Are they going to be a fun team? Also, no. It’s going to be a brutal season in virtually every way. The hope is that every player that the front office determines will not be a part of the next great Rangers team performs well, gets traded for prospects at the deadline, and clears the way for young talent to get an opportunity. For me, this year is all about the arrival of top prospect Josh Jung. Jung has the potential to be a game changer, a guy that can be at third base and in the middle of the lineup on a contending team. It would be so great to see Jung get called up and produce. If he plays poorly, it doesn’t matter; he’s only 23 and has time to prove himself. But it would be so fun to see him kill it. As much as I love Joey Gallo, I don’t think he’ll sign an extension with the Rangers and will most likely be traded for maximum value, if he plays at a high level. You can only hope that whatever return Gallo nets will help usher in the future. The upcoming free agent class is loaded with talent (especially at shortstop) and it would behoove the Rangers to sign one of Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Cory Seager, Carlos Correa, or Javier Baez. Scoring one of those studs, continuing to build up the farm system, and preparing to be aggressive spenders in the coming years will go a long way to returning this club to contention in the not-so-distant future. For now, we will have to suffer with what they currently have.
In recent years, the Rangers have made it very difficult to be a fan. The off-the-field stuff, lack of free agency spending, and failure to draft and develop talent have me extremely frustrated with this team. Although I will also be rooting for the San Diego Padres (the most fun team in baseball) this year, I’ll still begrudgingly cheer on the Rangers because sports fandom is a disease and I’m invested in these players. This season is going to make it tougher than ever but, like the Jackson 5, I’ll be there. I’m stuck with these losers.
FINAL RECORD PREDICTION: 64–98
[i] Acquavella, K. (2021, March 10). Texas Rangers plan to allow full capacity of fans for 2021 MLB Opening Day. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/texas-rangers-plan-to-allow-full-capacity-of-fans-for-2021-mlb-opening-day/
[ii] Weaver, L. (2021, February 15). The Rangers rotation might get a little weird this season. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from https://theathletic.com/2387720/2021/02/15/the-rangers-rotation-might-get-a-little-weird-this-season/
[iii] Associated Press (2021, March 9). Mike Foltynewicz encouraged by renewed velocity in fresh start with Texas Rangers. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31031600/mike-foltynewicz-encouraged-renewed-velocity-fresh-start-texas-rangers
*All stats are from www.fangraphs.com
